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A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that split the country and triggered chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.

That is the message from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Institutions Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."

New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue

The team have examined the political, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.

"What concerns everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, noted the journalist.

"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the publication, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two pieces that strive for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.

Debates encompass national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.

"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the notion that there may exist valid points on either side."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.

Likelihood of Public Vote

The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a negligent official who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"

Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has has valuable insights to gain from the other's positions."

Appeal for Broader Dialogue

Westminster should participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."